If a horse doesn’t act on the ground, it is much less likely to win. In my opinion the most important variable in any horse race is the going. I would always start by familiarising myself with past history and trends of a race. My second career may be as a weather forecaster! It is crucial to know the expected state of ground conditions for a race, so a large amount of time is spent obtaining the most accurate and specific weather forecasts. What follows, however, may provide more insight to the nuances of the process. It would be remiss of me to suggest that a horse’s current form, trainer and jockey, particularly names like Aidan O’Brien and Frankie Dettori, are not of obvious significance when putting the four corner pieces down. No two races are the same, yet every compilation starts the same way – with a blank sheet of paper. To get there, I liken it to piecing together a jigsaw puzzle. Under that day’s conditions, if a race were run an infinite number of times, what percentage would each horse win? Effectively as a bookmaker, I am aiming to lay every horse at the right percentage. They can all help a line maker, but the art of odds compiling hasn’t changed, and indeed many professional gamblers still choose to compile their own odds in order to identify market valueĪ bettor and a compiler will break down a race the same way, but while one has an objective – to back the winner – the other is being subjective, looking to assign each horse a percentage chance of winning. Now we have statistical models and digital form analysis, all available at the click of a button, as well as numerous online bookmakers with ‘early shows’, exchanges, and tipsters all vying for our custom. With the world’s information so much more readily accessible, gone are the days when odds compilers emerged from a darkened room having been surrounded by desk calculators, VHS recorders and Timeform Black Books. How do I compile odds and price races, I am constantly asked. I have sat on this side of the gambling industry fence for many years now, predominantly as a horse racing price maker and odds compiler. You may consider their evaluation a bargain and good value, or extortionate and overpriced. Whether you are buying red diamonds, a Bahamas holiday or half a dozen bananas, someone, somewhere has chosen and assigned a price at which you may buy.
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